Christmas Rate Cut?

Here’s What the Data Says!

This week in South Orange County real estate, we saw some notable shifts across Dana Point, San Clemente, Laguna Niguel, and San Juan Capistrano. Even the best homes sometimes need a second chance, as illustrated by this week’s $4 million sale at 4023 Cay Isabella in San Clemente.

Originally listed last year, this four-bedroom, three-bathroom, 2,719 sq ft home didn’t sell with its previous agent. With a refreshed marketing strategy, it sold this year for $3,995,000; demonstrating that sometimes the right approach is all a property needs.

Market Numbers That Matter

Inventory showed a rare uptick, increasing by six homes this week — the first rise in 11 weeks. However, Orange County overall still trends toward declining supply, with total Beach Cities inventory at 416 homes across all price points.

Demand, measured by homes in escrow, fell slightly from 165 to 150, partly due to a higher number of closings in the last 30 days. Homes that sold averaged $849 per square foot with 40 days on market, achieving 98.6% of list price. This highlights a tale of two markets: homes priced appropriately are selling quickly, while aspirationally priced homes linger.

Mortgage Rates & Market Trends

Mortgage rates continue to fluctuate as Fed guidance and employment data evolve. October’s private sector saw only 3,333 new jobs, a very low number. Analysts expect the Fed to consider these trends and potentially issue a rate cut by Christmas.

Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage remains controversial: for a $1 million loan, monthly payments drop by only $244, but total interest increases significantly over the life of the loan. Most experts still recommend the 30-year mortgage as the optimal balance.

Deal of the Week

A coming soon listing at 25251 Swanway Court in Dana Point is a rare opportunity. This cul-de-sac property sits on a 23,000 sq ft lot and will list at $1.489 million. Well-priced and spacious, this one is expected to attract multiple offers quickly.

FAQs:

Q: Why is Beach Cities inventory so low despite the slight increase?
Even with a temporary rise, total supply is still historically low, keeping the market competitive across Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, and San Clemente.

Q: How does the $4M San Clemente sale illustrate market trends?
It shows that homes may need a second marketing approach to sell — pricing strategy and presentation matter more than ever.

Q: Are rate cuts expected before Christmas?
With weak employment data, the Fed may consider a rate cut, but it depends on broader economic trends. Buyers should stay informed and ready to act.

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If you’re thinking about making a move in today’s market, you have to know how to use the current conditions to your advantage. Buyer behavior, market timing, and interest rates are all shifting, and staying informed can make a big difference. Don’t hesitate to give me a call at (949) 835-4713 or send an email to simon@sellwiththerightguy.com if you have any questions. Let’s talk strategy and figure out how you can win in real estate this year.