Is This the Start of a Real Estate Comeback?

Another Week, Another Record in Orange County Real Estate

The Orange County housing market continues its luxury streak — this week marked by a $15 million sale in Monarch Bay, one of Dana Point’s most prestigious oceanfront communities.

Even as fall approaches, demand remains incredibly strong across Dana Point, San Clemente, Laguna Niguel, and San Juan Capistrano. With inventory shrinking, mortgage rates dipping near 6%, and a new proposal that could reshape capital gains taxes, the market is showing no signs of slowing down.

Let’s dive into what’s driving the surge:

What’s Fueling the Market Momentum

• Luxury Sale of the Week:
  A $15 million Monarch Bay estate closed this week, reinforcing how competitive the Dana Point luxury segment has become. Ocean-view properties continue to draw out-of-area buyers seeking prime coastal investments.

• Shrinking Inventory:
  Active listings across the Beach Cities are declining faster than expected, leaving serious buyers competing over fewer available homes.

• Mortgage Rates Dipping Near 6%:
  The average 30-year mortgage rate is now around 6.22%, down from over 7% earlier this year — giving buyers renewed confidence to act.

• Potential Capital Gains Expansion:
  The “More Homes on the Market Act” could double capital gains exemptions for sellers, unlocking new listings from longtime homeowners who’ve been waiting for a tax-friendly opportunity to move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why are home prices still strong even with higher rates?
✔ Limited inventory keeps prices elevated — particularly for coastal and ocean-view properties in Dana Point, San Clemente, and Laguna Niguel. The luxury segment remains resilient because demand far outpaces available supply.

Q: How could the “More Homes on the Market Act” impact sellers?
✔ This proposal could allow homeowners to sell with less capital gains tax, potentially bringing thousands of new listings to market, especially from retirees or longtime owners with significant equity.

Q: Are mortgage rates really dropping?
✔ Yes — rates have trended downward to around 6.22%, and some forecasts suggest they could move closer to 6% or lower if inflation continues to ease.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Know

For Buyers:

• Slightly lower mortgage rates are improving affordability.

• Expect competition for move-in-ready or ocean-view homes.

• Watch for new inventory if the capital gains proposal passes — it could open up more mid-tier opportunities.

For Sellers:

• Low inventory continues to favor well-priced listings.

• If the capital gains exemption increases, this fall may bring more buyers — making now a strategic window to list.

• Homes with view, location, or new construction appeal still sell at a premium.

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Whether you’re exploring luxury real estate in Dana Point, searching for family neighborhoods in Laguna Niguel, or keeping an eye on San Clemente’s coastal market, the key is staying informed.

If you’re thinking about making a move in today’s market, you have to know how to use the current conditions to your advantage. Buyer behavior, market timing, and interest rates are all shifting — and strategy makes all the difference.

Don’t hesitate to reach out at (949) 835-4713 or email simon@sellwiththerightguy.com to talk strategy and discover how you can win in Orange County real estate this year.